Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2013, 61(7), 2561-2567 | DOI: 10.11118/actaun201361072561

Impulse-response analysis of monetary policy - Visegád group countries case

Kateřina Myšková, David Hampel, Anna Dobešová

Department of Statistics and Operational Analysis, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic

In this paper, we focus on comparability of monetary policies of Visegrád group countries (V4). Main objective of central banks function in V4 countries lies in maintaining price stability. For this purpose, inflation targeting regime is realized in a medium-term focus in V4, which means that there is a certain lag between monetary policy operation and its influence on an inflation target. Central bank does not have a direct impact on its ultimate goals. Therefore, any monetary policy analysis and assumption of its effectiveness comes out from an essential existence of a working transmission mechanism. Thus, changes in settings of monetary policy instruments have to be able to inflict causal changes on intermediary markets and via these markets on target markets. This situation can be modeled by the vector autoregressive (VAR) model with suitable variables. Our main task is to compare a relationship between VAR model responses to predefined impulses for all V4 pairs. We use calibration technique for this purpose. Specifically, we will utilize one-dimensional calibration model with a linear calibration function for deriving unknown parameters. Moreover, we will test a significance of estimated parameters. We distinguish between model parameters for before-crisis- and during-crisis-data, because we suppose that financial crisis affects VAR model parameters significantly. Different responses in each country can mean the inability of the common monetary policy for V4 at present.

Keywords: calibration, financial crisis, impulse-response analysis, inflation targeting, monetary policy, VAR model

Received: April 11, 2013; Published: December 24, 2013  Show citation