Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2004, 52(4), 125-136 | DOI: 10.11118/actaun200452040125

Scénáře změny klimatu ve vztahu k výnosu pšenice ozimé

Zdeněk Žalud
Ústav krajinné ekologie, Mendelova zemědělská a lesnická univerzita v Brně, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Česká republika

Ze studie je možné vyvodit dva základní závěry. Především konstatování, že výnos pšenice ozimé má obecnou tendenci na většině lokalit stoupat (40 z 42 aplikovaných klimatických scénářů) v rozsahu 7,5-25,3 % ve všech třech testovaných časových horizontech. V případě naplnění CCSR scénáře, který predikuje nevýraznější nárůst teploty, by byl výnos redukován o 9,6 % v roce 2050 a o 25,8 % v roce 2100 za podmínek emisního scénáře A2. Rozdíly mezi jednotlivými lokalitami jsou značné a statisticky významné, zvláště pro pozdější časová období. Druhým závěrem je posouzení vlivu místních podmínek, které potvrzují, že významnou roli hrají právě lokální půdní a klimatické vlivy. Místní významnost vzrůstá se zvyšující se změnou klimatu a kulminuje pro emisní scénář A2 v roce 2100. Byla nalezena setrvalá tendence profitu dvou nejteplejších lokalit stejně jako lokalit s hlubším půdním profilem.

růstový model, emisní scénáře, evaluace fenologie a výnosu, simulace

Climate change scenarios related to the winter wheat yields

Impact of climate change on winter wheat yields using crop growth model has been tested in this study. Simulated results show that: (1) Wheat yields tend in general to increase (40 out of 42 applied climate change scenarios) on most locations in range between 7.5-25.3% in all three time periods. In case of CCSR scenario that predicts the most severe increase of air temperature yields would be reduced by 9.6% in 2050 and by 25.8% if the A2 emission scenario would become reality. Differences between individual scenarios are large and statistically significant and especially for the more distant time periods may lead to doubts about the trend of the yield shifts. (2) Site effect upon the final quantity of climate change impact of winter wheat yield was caused mainly by site-specific differences in the present soil and climatic conditions. Specific importance of site increases with increasing severity of imposed climatic changes and culminates for emission scenario A2 and time period 2100. The sustained tendencies benefiting two warmest sites has been found as well as betters response to the change climatic conditions of sites with deeper soil profiles than those with less suitable soil conditions.

Keywords: crop model, emission scenario, phenology and yield evaluation, simulation
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Práce mohla být provedena s podporou výzkumného záměru řešeného na Mendelově zemědělské a lesnické univerzitě v Brně č.: J 08/98: 432100001.

Received: May 4, 2004; Published: June 7, 2015  Show citation

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Žalud, Z. (2004). Climate change scenarios related to the winter wheat yields. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 52(4), 125-136. doi: 10.11118/actaun200452040125
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