Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2008, 56(2), 217-226 | DOI: 10.11118/actaun200856020217

Validace simulačního modelu pro brambory

Milada Šťastná, Petra Oppeltová, Jana Dufková
Ústav aplikované a krajinné ekologie, MZLU v Brně, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Česká republika

Studie byla zaměřena na ověření modelu SUBSTOR - Potato a jeho využití při pěstování brambor v České republice. Experimentální plochy, které byly použity k evaluaci modelu, se nacházely v Žabčicích - oblasti Jižní Moravy s nadmořskou výškou 179 m n. m. Parametrem ověření modelu byl zvolen výnos hlíz brambor a odrůda. K jeho evaluaci byla použita data časové řady (1994-2002). V experimentu byly použity dvě odrůdy: Rosara, a Karin, které zastupovaly velmi rané a rané brambory (Solanum tuberosum L.). Validaci modelu představuje srovnání simulovaných hodnot výnosu brambor modelem s výnosem reálným. Výnos brambor simulovaný modelem ukázal vynikající shodu u odrůdy Rosara (R2 = 0,97), ale pouze u čtyř z devíti testovaných let (1997, 1998, 1999 a 2002). Odrůda Karin dosáhla značně nižších hodnoty (R2 = 0,43). Model podhodnocoval výnos brambor v nepříznivých podmínkách (jako např. v suchých letech - nízké množství srážek a jejich nepravidelné rozložení v průběhu vegetačního období nebo vyšší hodnoty průměrné teploty vzduchu). Dále potvrdil citlivost při simulacích vybraných odrůd. Studie prokázala, že model SUBSTOR - Potato je vhodný k využití v managementu brambor, nicméně lze očekávat potenciální odchylky, pokud bude model použit pro simulaci růstu a produkce brambor v extrémních podmínkách.

evaluace, program, citlivost, Solanum Tuberosum L., SUBSTOR, počasí

Validation of potato simulation model

Aim of the study focused on evaluation of SUBSTOR - Potato model and its utilization in potato grows management in the Czech Republic. The experimental field used for the model evaluation was located in Žabčice - South Moravia region with altitudes of 179 meters above the sea level. Tuber yield served as reference for the model evaluation. Nine years experimental data set (1994-2002) was used for the model validation. Rosara cultivar represented very early growing potato, Karin cultivar depicted early growing potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the experiment. Comparison between observed and simulated tuber yields presented the evaluation process of SUBSTOR - Potato model. Tuber yields simulated by the model showed excellent accuracy (R2 = 0.97) for Rosara cultivar, but only for four of tested years (1997, 1998, 1999 and 2002). Karin cultivar matched lower value (R2 = 0.43). The model tended to underestimate the tuber yield for non seasonable conditions (i.e. dry years - low amount of precipitation and its disordered distribution during the growing season or higher mean air temperature) and showed the sensitivity to selected cultivars. Study proved SUBSTOR - Potato model as suitable for utilization in potato management; however, potential differences might be expected while using the model under extreme weather conditions.

Keywords: evaluation, program, sensitivity, Solanum tuberosum L., SUBSTOR, weather conditions
Grants and funding:

This study was supported by the Research plan No. MSM6215648905 "Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change", which is financed by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic and the National Agency of Agricultural Research of the Czech Republic (NAZV), project No. QF 3100.

Received: February 1, 2008; Published: November 14, 2014  Show citation

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Šťastná, M., Oppeltová, P., & Dufková, J. (2008). Validation of potato simulation model. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 56(2), 217-226. doi: 10.11118/actaun200856020217
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