Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2015, 63, 1995-2003

https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563061995
Published online 2015-12-26

Insider Trading Activities and Returns of German Blue Chips

Dagmar Linnertová, Oleg Deev

Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Žerotínovo nám. 617/9, 601 77 Brno, Czech Republic

The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality between stock returns and insider open market transactions. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) heterogeneous approach to panel Granger causality is chosen to examine the relationship. The investigation is conducted on the 30 most traded German blue chips during the period of 2006–2014. The strong causality is revealed in the one-month period. Thus, stock returns may be used to predict future insider trading activity. The strong causality between stock returns and future insider buying and selling transactions is further confirmed with three out of four employed insider trading indices. The fact of the legal insider trade (either buy or sell) is more important than its volume. The reverse relationship is weak and valid only for longer time horizon of twelve months. Our results indicate that insider traders do not degrade the market efficiency in the long run.

Funding

Support of the Masaryk University grant MUNI/A/1127/2014 “Analýza, tvorba a testování modelů oceňování finančních, zajišťovacích a investičních aktiv a jejich využití k predikci vzniku finančních krizí” is gratefully acknowledged.

References

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