Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2013, 61(7), 2835-2842 | DOI: 10.11118/actaun201361072835
Impact of money supply on stock bubbles
- Department of Finance, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
This article focuses on the effect and implications of changes in money supply in the US on stock bubble rise on the US capital market, which is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. This market was chosen according to the market capitalization. The attention of the paper is drawn to issues - if according to the results of empirical analysis, the money supply is a significant factor which causes the bubbles and if during the time the significance and impact of this macroeconomic factor on stock index increase.
Keywords: money supply, stock market, stock bubbles, Granger causality, Dickey-Fuller test
Received: April 11, 2013; Published: December 24, 2013 Show citation
References
- ALITIQI, S., FAZEL, S., 2008: Can money supply predict stock prices?, Middle Tennessee State University, Business and economic research center. Journal for economic educators, 8, 2: 54-59. ISSN N.
- AMBROSIO, F. J., KINNIRY, F. M., 2009: Stock market volatilty measures in perspective. [online]. Vanguard investment counseling & research, 2009. No. 3 [cit. 2012-08-15]. Dostupné z www:
- ARTL, J., 1997: Kointegrace v jednorovnicových modelech. Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 1997. Politická ekonomie, 45, 5: 733-746, [online]. [cit. 2011-11-02]. Dostupné z www:
Go to original source...
- ARTL, J., 2003: Finančnní časové řady. 1. vyd. Praha: Grada, 220 s. ISBN 80-247-0330-0.
- BAKER, D., 2000: The costs of the stock market bubble. Center of economic policy and research.[online]. [cit. 2013-02-10]. Dostupné z www:
- BENAKOVIĆ, D., POSEDEL, P., 2010: Do macroeconomic factors matters for stock returns? Evidence from estimating a multifactor model on the Croatian market. Business system research, 1, 1-2: 39-46. ISSN 1847-8344. DOI: 10.2478/v10305-012-0023-z
Go to original source...
- BERNANKE, B., 2003: Monetary policy and the stock market. [online]. The federal reserve board, October, 2003. [cit. 2012-03-27]. Dostupné z www:
Go to original source...
- BILSON, C. M., BRAILSFORD, T. J., HOOPER, V. J., 2000: Selecting marcoeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stocks market returns. [online]. The Australian national university: Working papers series in finance 00-04. [cit. 2012-08-26]. Dostupné z www:
Go to original source...
- BORDO, M. D., WHEELOCK, D. C., 2007: Stock market booms and monetary policy in the twentieth century. Federal reserve bank of St. Louis, March/April 2007. Review, 89, 2: 91-122. ISSN 0014-9187.
Go to original source...
- CECCHETTI, S. G., 2002: Price index convergence among United States cities. International Economic Review, 43, 4: 1081-1099. ISSN 0020-6598. DOI: 10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00049
Go to original source...
- CROUSHORE, D., 2006: Money&Banking: a policy oriented approach. Cengage learning. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 201. ISBN 978-0-618-16125-6.
- DEEV, O. KAJUROVÁ, V. STAVÁREK, D., 2012: Stock market speculative bubbles: the case of Visegrad countries. [online]. In: Mathematical methods in Economics 2012, Karviná, 2012. [cit. 2013-01-12]. Dostupné z www:
- DICKEY, D. A., FULLER, W. A., 1979: Distribution of the estimators for autoregresive time series with unit root test. Journal of the american statistical association, 74, 36: 427-431. ISSN 0162-1459.
Go to original source...
- DILLÉN, H., SELLIN, P. 2003: Financial bubbles and monetary policy. Economic Review [online]. Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank, 2003. [cit. 2011-04-25]. Dostupné z www:
- EICHENGREEN, B., TONG, H., 2003: Stock market volatility and monetary policy: What the historical record shows. [online]. University of California, Berkley, August 2003. [cit. 2012-08-15]. Dostupné z www:
- ENGLAND, S. F., 2003: The Federal reserve Board and the stock market bubble: the relationship is more complex than it appears. [online].Business Economics, April, 2003. [cit. 201-08-02]. Dostuné z www:
- FARRELL, J., 1974: Analysing covariation of returns to determine homogenous stock groupings. Journal of Business, 47, 2: 186-207. ISSN 0021-9398. DOI: 10.1086/295630
Go to original source...
- FLANNERY, M., PROTOPAPADAKIS, A., 2002: Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns. Oxford university press: The review of financial study, 15, 3: 751-782. ISSN 1465-7368. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/15.3.751
Go to original source...
- GREENSPAN, A., 2004: Risk and uncertainty in monetary policy. American Economic Rewiev, 94, 2: 33-40. ISSN 002-8282. DOI: 10.1257/0002828041301551
Go to original source...
- HANOUSEK, J. NOVOTNÝ, J., 2012: Price jumps in visegrad-country stock markets: A empirical analysis. [onlie]. CERGE-EI, 2012. [cit. 2013-01-12]. Dostupné z www:
- HUMAYUN, F., 2012: Monetary overhang will continue to create bubbles.[online]. Seeking Alpha, 2012. [cit. 2012-08-06]. Dostupné z www:
- CHEN, N., ROLL, R., ROSS S. A., 1986: Economic forces and the stock market. The journal of business, 59, 3: 383-403. ISSN 0148-2963. DOI: 10.1086/296344
Go to original source...
- IOANNIDIS, CH., KONTONIKAS, A., 2006: Monetary policy and the stock market: Some international evidence. [online]. University of Glasgow, 2006. [cit. 2012-06-10]. Dostupné z www:
- JIANG, Z. Q. et al., 2009: Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubble. [online]. SwissFinance institute, 2009, Research paper series No. 9-39. [cit. 2013-01-12]. Dostupné z www:
Go to original source...
- KING, B., 1966: Market and industry factors in stock price behaviour. [online]. The Journal of Business, 39: 139. [cit. 2011-06-10]. Dostupné z www: DOI: 10.1086/294847
Go to original source...
- KOHOUT, P., 2007: Co je motorem hospodářského růstu. [online]. [cit. 2011-12-01]. Dostupné z www:
- KOHOUT, P., 2010: Investiční strategie pro třetí tisíciletí. 6. vyd. Praha: Grada Publishing, 296 p. ISBN 978-80-247-3315-9.
- KOMÁREK, L., KUBICOVÁ, I., 2011: The classification and identification of asset price bubbles. Czech journal of economics and finance, 61, 1: 34-48. ISSN 0015-1920.
- KUBICOVÁ, I., KOMÁREK, L., PLAŠIL, M., 2012: Analýza makrofinančních rizik a jejich přenosů v kontextu zranitelnosti české ekonomiky. 1. vyd.. Praha: ČVUT, 115. ISBN 978-80-86729-76-3.
- KULHÁNEK, L., MATUZSEK, S., 2006: Peněžní zásoba a vývoj akciových trhů v České republice, Slovenské republice a ve vybraných zemích. In: Mezinárodní vědecká konference Národohospodárskej fakulty Ekonomické univerzity v Bratislavě "Znalostná ekonomika - nové výzvy pre nárohospodársku vedu". Bratislava: Ekonomická univerzita v Bratislavě, 182. ISBN 80-225-2239-2.
- LUCCA, D. O., MOENCH, E., 2012: The pre-FOMC announcement drift. [online]Federal reserve bank of New York, Staff report No. 512, 2012. [cit. 2012-07-19]. Dostupné z www:
Go to original source...
- MUNZI, T. HLAVÁČ, P., 2009: Vliv cílování inflace na endogenitu peněz. [online]. Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 2009. [cit. 2012-06-19]. Dostupné z www:
- MUSÍLEK, P., 1997: Změny makroekonomických veličin a akciové kurzy. Finance a úvěr, 47, 3: 150-163. ISSN 0015-1920.
- NĚMEC, J., 2012: Záchranáři poslední instance. Economia, 56, 36: 7-11. ISSN 1210-0714.
- NOVOTNÝ, R., 2012: Centrální banky a bubliny. Fond Shop, 16, 7: 14-16. ISSN 1211-7277.
- OFEK, E.,RICHARDSON, M. Dot.com mania: A survey of market eficiency in the Internet sector. Working paper, NewYork University, 2001.
Go to original source...
- POLANSKÝ, I., 2010: Psychologie investorů. [online]. Fond Shop, 2010. [cit. 2012-11-30]. Dostupné z www:
- POSEN, A., S., 2003: It takes more than a bubble to become Japan. [online]. Institute for international economics. Working paper No. 03, 10/2003. [cit. 2012-11-06]. Dostupné z www:
- REJNUŠ, O., 2009: Cenné papíry a burzy. 1. vyd. Brno: Cerm, s.r.o., 398 s. ISBN 978-80-214-3805-7.
- ROGALSKI, R. J., VINSO, J. D., 1977: Stock Returns, Money Supply and The Direction of Causality. The Journal of Finance, 32, 4: 1017-1030. ISSN 1540-6261. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03306.x
Go to original source...
- SHILLER, R. J., 2010: Investiční horečka: iracionální nadšení na kapitálových trzích. Praha: Grada Publishing, a. s., 296 s. ISBN 978-80-247-2482-9.
- SHIRATSUKA, S., 2003: Asset price bubble in Japan in the 1980s: lesson for financial and macroeconomica stability. [online]. Bank of Japan: Institute for monetary and economic studies, 2003. [cit. 2011-12-14]. Dostupné z www:
- SHOSTAK, F., 2003: Making sense of money supply data. [online]. Ludwig von Mieses Institute, December 17, 2003. [cit. 2011-05-13]. Dostupné z www:
- ŠÍMA, J. LIPKA, D., 2002: Bubliny na akciových trzích jako důsledek aktivní monetární politiky. [online]. Praha: Liberální institut. [cit. 2012-08-14]. Dostupné z www:
- TOMŠÍK, V., VIKTOROVÁ, D., 2005: Peníze a hospodářský růst v české republice - je mezi nimi vztah? Praha: Vysoká škola ekonomická, 2005. [online]. [cit. 2011-11-02]. Dostupné z www:
- TREGLER, K., 2005: Oceňování akciových trhů: metody měření správnosti ocenění.1. vyd. Praha: C. H. Beck, 164 s. ISBN 80-7179-439-2.
- VESELÁ, J., 2007: Investování na kapitálových trzích. Praha: ASPI, a. s., 704 s. ISBN 978-80-7357-297-6.
- WORLD FEDERATION OF EXCHANCHES, 2011: WFE Market Highlights [online]. [cit. 2012-03-05]. WFE 2011. Dostupné z www:
- ZAMRAZILOVÁ, E., 2010: Finanční krize a měnová politika. [online] 2010. [cit. 2010-12-30]. Dostupné z www:
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY NC ND 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.