RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
A1 Žalud, Zdeněk
T1 Climate change scenarios related to the winter wheat yields
JF Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis
YR 2015
VO 52
IS 4
SP 125
OP 136
DO 10.11118/actaun200452040125
UL https://acta.mendelu.cz/artkey/acu-200404-0013.php
AB Impact of climate change on winter wheat yields using crop growth model has been tested in this study. Simulated results show that: (1) Wheat yields tend in general to increase (40 out of 42 applied climate change scenarios) on most locations in range between 7.5-25.3% in all three time periods. In case of CCSR scenario that predicts the most severe increase of air temperature yields would be reduced by 9.6% in 2050 and by 25.8% if the A2 emission scenario would become reality. Differences between individual scenarios are large and statistically significant and especially for the more distant time periods may lead to doubts about the trend of the yield shifts. (2) Site effect upon the final quantity of climate change impact of winter wheat yield was caused mainly by site-specific differences in the present soil and climatic conditions. Specific importance of site increases with increasing severity of imposed climatic changes and culminates for emission scenario A2 and time period 2100. The sustained tendencies benefiting two warmest sites has been found as well as betters response to the change climatic conditions of sites with deeper soil profiles than those with less suitable soil conditions.