Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2013, 61, 2923-2929

https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361072923
Published online 2013-12-24

Selection of scenarios in qualitative models: The case of a government tenders model

Štěpán Veselý, Mirko Dohnal

Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Kolejní 4, 612 00 Brno, Czech Republic

The task of this methodological paper is to clarify the process of selection of scenarios in qualitative models. Articles on qualitative modeling usually do not cover the topic of scenarios selection exhaustively, only the basic operations are (sometimes) described. This lack of detail might lead to confusion and overly simplified understanding of the process of model development when new users meet with qualitative models. We outline the basic principle of consistency, i.e. that scenarios inconsistent with a given knowledge item entered into the qualitative model are discarded from the model. With help of this principle, the vast set of all “imaginable” scenarios (2712 in our case) can be reduced to just 7 scenarios in less than 40 steps. A manageable number of scenarios is important to enable interpretation and practical use, e.g. to evaluate concrete tasks and policies. For our demonstration we use our previously published model of government tenders. The current paper can help those who want to understand qualitative models and their development better, it is not restricted to the problem of qualitative modeling of government tenders.

References

27 live references