Acta Univ. Agric. Silvic. Mendelianae Brun. 2013, 61, 205-214

http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361010205

Pest occurrence model in current climate – validation study for European domain

Eva Svobodová1, Miroslav Trnka1, Martin Dubrovský1, Daniela Semerádová1, Josef Eitzinger2, Zdeněk Žalud1, Petr Štěpánek3

1Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
2Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
3CzechGlobe-Global Change Research Centre, v.v.i., AS CR, Bělidla 4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic

The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe.

Keywords: climate change, climate matching, pests, endangered areas, northern range, CLIMEX.

References: 50 live references.

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